Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0d2eefd1aa9f74acdc229296ce884e4e1fab6ae4113048543182d6c40b9cbd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $306,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $334,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafee…2219backed Yes | 5c | 103,055$5,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,430 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…7693backed Yes | 5c | 30,102$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 4c | 22,000$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 3c | 14,063$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…f6cabacked Yes | 4c | 10,745$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 6c | 5,442$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.01 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 3c | 3,833$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,188$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12c…f4c0backed Yes | 6c | 2,907$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ea…33d6backed Yes | 7c | 2,410$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed Yes | 1c | 2,056$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,999$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…e619backed Yes | 6c | 1,753$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…7b30backed Yes | 12c | 1,729$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 3c | 1,725$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e7…723ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,699$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…6194backed Yes | 1c | 1,695$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…b808backed Yes | 6c | 1,609$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 26cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…caebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,360$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…b9aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,307$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,204$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…1039backed Yes | 9c | 1,167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 3c | 818.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2748…6a07backed Yes | 3c | 782.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…1152backed Yes | 4c | 770$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc4…bb77backed Yes | 3c | 768.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1921…5efdbacked Yes | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…87ebbacked Yes | 7c | 644$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…837bbacked Yes | 8c | 640.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 608.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 3c | 558.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 4c | 526.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b8…ff77backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 2c | 464.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…6c98backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 5c | 400.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b6…d759backed Yes | 7c | 398.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…0bd8backed Yes | 4c | 392.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…ce13backed Yes | 9c | 320.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 3c | 312.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 299.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…115fbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…1287backed Yes | 8c | 243.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb4…d58ebacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…0926backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…8964backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +196.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.