TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Nothing Ever Happens: Russian Capture Edition

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,664 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f69…7df1backed No80c16,220$12,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,293.8524258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes32c5,638$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.337843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes33c3,870$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.1423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,212$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.725327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No68c2,678$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.8714750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fd…ec0cbacked Yes33c2,298$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.062722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a3…f6d6backed Yes35c1,980$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.491136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No78c1,890$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.74825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71bf…a0b9backed Yes36c1,165$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.43650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7b…6927backed Yes1c1,034$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes21c999.96$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9911040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes32c954.85$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.051952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes33c821.09$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.087761%47 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed Yes27c747.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe011…f068backed No75c695$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No69c652.81$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.2826238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No67c638.03$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.552138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c622.25$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5639429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes35c599.99$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.9926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf639…d967backed Yes29c517.23$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.566650%33 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1904358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes29c498.5$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+56.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadf1…1e9bbacked Yes39c442.78$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.44452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes22c395.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8317232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b5…9975backed Yes51c391.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.394163.4%26 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes17c385.29$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.235352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x81b2…fc3cbacked Yes4c377.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…fb5dbacked Yes34c365.71$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.121631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x342e…7e88backed Yes33c333$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.891471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+40.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No66c322.54$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.922770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed Yes41c317.67$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc74…216cbacked No69c299.99$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.123560%21 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes36c280.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.01119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-78.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes35c240.42$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.982931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No67c223.22$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9715451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes5c221.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.168927%24 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1adb…5e2dbacked Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314a…2fbdbacked No76c208.03$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No64c206.75$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9225528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2384…3e0bbacked No60c206.67$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.675639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c1…4135backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x297a…d7ebbacked No66c199.97$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.991070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No65c178.3$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.23728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes33c175.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.623545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb261…09a7backed No71c168.13$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ec…9a6bbacked Yes31c161.64$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.82944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa2…ac61backed Yes37c149.26$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x609c…bb25backed No67c146.72$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Yes18c127.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.89837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No65c126$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.15461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb819…1f1cbacked No62c115.25$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd704…cf56backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+41.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3336…f823backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdfb…c05cbacked Yes45c89.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa64b…1b46backed Yes24c83.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8751…b1f7backed Yes40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x313e…c4a3backed Yes20c73.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes34c73.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9117122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No72c72.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.62343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1242…8dfebacked No65c71$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.11758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94e4…b7cfbacked No72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.443053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes30c67.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c66.83$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.141736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x05fd…50c9backed Yes35c65.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0472…c62fbacked Yes34c56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes24c54.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9320026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ecf…fc09backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-77%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c51.24$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.230837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9564…0df2backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.58045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes27c48.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.158337.3%31 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf180…0053backed Yes50c46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb823…1fc0backed Yes44c45.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c2…1bbebacked Yes36c45.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22e2…42d6backed No67c43.94$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54119.5%8 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed Yes27c43.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.747949.4%39 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No63c42.04$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.718652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed No70c38.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes38c36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6826318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb618…40eebacked Yes56c35.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked No67c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.556971%49 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked No52c32.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.596622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No64c32.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.535464.8%35 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe106…92c6backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+62.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No70c27.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.342540%10 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5444…4853backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff6c…570fbacked Yes40c26.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.461233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc92…6564backed No58c26.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed Yes45c25.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.454452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94de…5679backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55fb…0ac1backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ad…dae2backed No68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.06425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.611322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e6…90dfbacked No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7772…5e17backed No69c18.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.