World Politics · resolved market
SPD wins 14% or more of vote in Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x736b24fd899039628823d6359354cb2c9fcd96662004d408c268102f6a80f24d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 26c | 29,586$7,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,616.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 75c | 12,654$9,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,211.18 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 74c | 5,200$3,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 76c | 4,399$3,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.37 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 72c | 4,000$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…de17backed No | 72c | 3,493$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b9…47cebacked No | 72c | 2,339$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.55 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…5a1bbacked No | 73c | 682.88$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 70c | 666$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed No | 73c | 198$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 178.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 26c | 150.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…fcbfbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 18c | 142.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 65c | 134.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 134$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 18c | 114$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…e282backed Yes | 23c | 109.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 44c | 91.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 73c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…27ccbacked No | 74c | 29.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +286.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.