World Politics · resolved market
Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03fca0c568d4eb5fc71eff3544831682bda59b2c3ebc62e2a498403167dd3751
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 2c | 11,835$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 7,673$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.64 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3757…b838backed Yes | 4c | 7,575$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,434$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…83bcbacked Yes | 6c | 5,409$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.09 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,328$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…7be9backed Yes | 2c | 3,873$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…0f5dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,857$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…03cfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,834$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5585…3896backed Yes | 7c | 3,829$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,242$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,162$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…f069backed Yes | 4c | 2,399$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…fcbfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,384$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…4cf5backed Yes | 9c | 1,719$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…643cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,656$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,298$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…48e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,242$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +154.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked Yes | 8c | 1,237$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,195$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf87…e8aabacked Yes | 9c | 1,173$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac0…8bd1backed Yes | 4c | 1,156$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 1,095$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee86…c85fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,071$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,069$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…4cc3backed Yes | 4c | 1,010$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 5c | 838.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 824.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 683.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b9…47cebacked Yes | 8c | 631.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7127…caedbacked Yes | 15c | 618.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 5c | 554.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49c…5f2fbacked Yes | 2c | 509.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…4d67backed Yes | 4c | 460.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2df…0fbdbacked Yes | 7c | 450$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…0485backed Yes | 6c | 410.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 4c | 397.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5403…7e03backed Yes | 3c | 387.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…cf00backed Yes | 3c | 370$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 5c | 361.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a5…e400backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…7f46backed Yes | 5c | 203.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a4…1ba5backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Petr Fiala be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?this page
- Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Yes won
- Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?No won
- Will Kateřina Konečná be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?No won
- Will Tomio Okamura be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?No won
- Will Vít Rakušan be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.