TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,243
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,243 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes5c4,515$207 inLost-$207.4814315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed Yes3c4,513$149 inLost-$148.935819%11 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f0…cf6dbacked Yes4c2,756$104 inLost-$104.442222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed Yes4c1,500$57 inLost-$56.65214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick15cpaid-92.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca0…140ebacked Yes3c1,406$44 inLost-$43.591833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c6f…8b32backed Yes7c1,361$96 inLost-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes1c1,194$11 inLost-$11.017121.1%15 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes5c1,092$50 inLost-$50.333545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x656d…e4c9backed Yes5c1,088$50 inLost-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c952.3$30 inLost-$30.314629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4af7…2381backed Yes3c914.16$27 inLost-$27.451315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+313.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c884.85$39 inLost-$39.41695.8%4 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+148.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaac3…6ea4backed Yes4c700.55$27 inLost-$27911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid+58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578b…ca8ebacked Yes4c628.44$25 inLost-$24.7660%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c600$23 inLost-$23.51074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes4c586.48$25 inLost-$25.371533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+65.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes4c483.63$20 inLost-$20160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cb…db04backed Yes5c443.95$20 inLost-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79a8…bb66backed Yes4c400$16 inLost-$15.64240%0 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c399.99$17 inLost-$17.2664.5%3 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes3c350$10 inLost-$10.53625%9 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked Yes4c300$11 inLost-$10.84746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c37…478bbacked Yes4c277.02$11 inLost-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4f…7a7dbacked Yes8c258.55$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-60.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes5c250$12 inLost-$11.95214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+216.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc9e…7566backed Yes4c238.1$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc2f…5d00backed Yes5c220.26$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3f…8728backed Yes6c199.89$12 inLost-$11.99825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d77…ee89backed Yes7c140.23$10 inLost-$10.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.