TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Armenia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,758 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x454c…bd22backed Yes3c4,411$154 inLost-$153.71468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid+96.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes4c2,076$87 inLost-$8750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…bb84backed Yes5c1,206$56 inLost-$56.41816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+323%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…f17cbacked Yes9c668.22$59 inLost-$59.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ec…998cbacked Yes8c614.93$50 inLost-$501060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd378…19e8backed Yes4c502.68$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes7c493.99$35 inLost-$34.8814315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes5c373.36$20 inLost-$20160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes4c286.09$10 inLost-$10.161478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes4c264.67$11 inLost-$10.994418.2%8 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-38.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x528f…c6e2backed Yes8c246.97$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79a8…bb66backed Yes8c200$16 inLost-$16240%0 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd18…75afbacked Yes13c190.2$24 inLost-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…6c88backed Yes9c166.67$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c14…821ebacked Yes9c144.44$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.