Music · resolved market
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ec2c9932c16c1e5daeea4a952110036bce061ce8248e31f9b5dc42f41fa2304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $324,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $366,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 4c | 50,298$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.77 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf344…9a04backed No | 2c | 33,283$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 1c | 15,077$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.93 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 6c | 14,768$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.84 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…5527backed No | 1c | 10,534$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.74 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 7c | 9,851$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.28 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed No | 4c | 7,497$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.19 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +231.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 2c | 7,090$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…6717backed No | 1c | 5,821$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a61…94f0backed No | 2c | 5,725$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 3c | 3,865$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 2,738$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 2c | 2,549$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 1c | 2,535$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +353%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed No | 4c | 2,169$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 4c | 2,122$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed No | 4c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,953$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,924$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +202.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 3c | 1,786$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 1,635$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…308bbacked No | 3c | 1,449$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 5c | 1,438$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 1,357$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…4223backed No | 1c | 1,310$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 3c | 1,276$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…32a4backed No | 3c | 1,260$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 3c | 1,249$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 5c | 1,189$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 6c | 1,116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 806.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 2c | 802.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 5c | 709.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1a…7ba7backed No | 3c | 547.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…a1f9backed No | 4c | 546.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 517.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 3c | 483.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…0accbacked No | 11c | 452.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 9c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 3c | 336.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 5c | 333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ea…ba53backed No | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 138.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 10c | 104.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7e…f846backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 11c | 97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 13c | 84.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Armenia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Austria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Azerbaijan be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Estonia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Latvia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Luxembourg be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Montenegro be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Portugal be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will San Marino be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Switzerland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will United Kingdom be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.