MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60ffa15c3e29a44b1ee5c2625670a8df8bb3f9ff38e87f8031c3512d18a73afe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 51c | 15,070$7,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,384.37 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 3,960$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.43 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 50c | 3,633$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 49c | 3,008$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.1 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.99 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 2,515$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 50c | 1,916$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.79 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.16 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 1,630$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.22 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 49c | 1,328$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.97 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 1,297$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.46 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 1,047$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.19 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 776.92$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 553.44$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 49c | 488.51$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.37 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 434.3$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 48c | 402$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.04 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Over | 50c | 294.04$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.02 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 51c | 250.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 209.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 57c | 186.69$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 184.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 137$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 130.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Under | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Under | 47c | 96.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 89.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 49c | 84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…ba8bbacked Over | 51c | 73.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 46c | 64.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 51c | 59.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 59.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 39.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 35.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 50c | 34.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Over | 52c | 28.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…2191backed Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 71c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 51c | 26.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaf…20c0backed Under | 52c | 26.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 49c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-9.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.