MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7682ca1073b3d7e2129e5eaa047e3841f8c7e209580c20ded285ba8ed93f7849
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed New York Mets | 40c | 12,500$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 7,441$4,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,464.37 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 5,851$3,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,505.18 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 55c | 4,666$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked New York Mets | 40c | 3,750$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 3,420$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.89 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 40c | 1,218$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 52c | 1,020$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Mets | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 41c | 767.98$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Mets | 40c | 504.61$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.29 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 502.9$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.74 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 40c | 483.6$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 476.15$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.24 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 275$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…391fbacked New York Mets | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 214.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 53c | 204.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 202.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 140$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 134.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked New York Mets | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Mets | 47c | 105.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked New York Mets | 42c | 89.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed New York Mets | 37c | 86.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 65.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed New York Mets | 55c | 65.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 37c | 64.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed New York Mets | 43c | 62.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed New York Mets | 42c | 59.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed New York Mets | 40c | 59.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed New York Mets | 40c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed New York Mets | 42c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets | 47c | 47.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…8889backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 44.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed New York Mets | 40c | 43.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 43.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 51c | 40.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 40.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed New York Mets | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 56c | 32.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 31.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked New York Mets | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…abe1backed New York Mets | 41c | 24.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 24.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 17.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-9.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.