MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e9f967c17d241e2610e025614e07836623c0d453dfd46dcec6b51577931d8f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 44c | 1,091$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 1,087$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 881.31$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 744.22$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 29c | 322.54$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 42c | 291.77$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.23 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 66c | 272.57$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 158$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaf…20c0backed Under | 64c | 155.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 33c | 97.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 77.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 40c | 74.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 37c | 43.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 73c | 29.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 48c | 24.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 56c | 23.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 60c | 21.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 60c | 21.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.