MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6651cc5b4ec18b39421301ffc5147ccc35bb5897a30210429a4ec8164f6c6949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Mets, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 70c | 9,393$6,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,774.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 29c | 7,428$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets | 31c | 2,450$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.65 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8f…449bbacked New York Yankees | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Yankees | 65c | 1,849$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.78 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 35c | 821.17$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Mets | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed New York Yankees | 61c | 486.67$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked New York Mets | 35c | 412.78$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed New York Yankees | 65c | 395.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed New York Yankees | 65c | 143$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked New York Mets | 35c | 106$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 38c | 98.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked New York Mets | 27c | 86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 28c | 74.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed New York Yankees | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Yankees | 75c | 69.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed New York Mets | 35c | 67.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked New York Mets | 32c | 63.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 65c | 60.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked New York Yankees | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked New York Mets | 40c | 50.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 48.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed New York Mets | 32c | 40.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed New York Mets | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed New York Yankees | 64c | 38.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed New York Mets | 42c | 34.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 59c | 32.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Yankees | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed New York Yankees | 66c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Yankees | 73c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.