MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcdfb6e3b0dedf9101eb0cc9e024b729d4bdf08a3572817b4d2703465a567673
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Yankees, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Yankees | 37c | 755.26$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.45 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 63c | 692.84$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees | 36c | 590.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.76 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 64c | 458.95$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.22 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Yankees | 68c | 440.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.72 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed New York Yankees | 36c | 430.56$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets | 64c | 399.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets | 62c | 317.68$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.36 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed New York Mets | 64c | 308.5$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed New York Mets | 64c | 308.5$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 36c | 292.44$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 25c | 255$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 40c | 188.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 159.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed New York Yankees | 36c | 152.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed New York Yankees | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…27f1backed New York Yankees | 36c | 132.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 36c | 56.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Yankees | 48c | 55.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed New York Yankees | 60c | 32.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked New York Mets | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 62c | 30.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed New York Yankees | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 62c | 21.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 64c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.