NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c854f8948bdcb981a4ecedc697f8b817bfe19c25f830e0c82425c051bcb1638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 5,291$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.59 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Under | 60c | 4,217$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.9 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 37c | 1,367$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.56 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 6.5%8 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 56c | 934.47$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.54 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 29c | 890.64$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.36 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 493.72$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.42 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb628…fd2bbacked Under | 59c | 459.2$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.2 | 118 | 73.7%87 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Under | 60c | 415.73$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.37 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Over | 77c | 357.58$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.34 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 41c | 246.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 148 | 45.3%67 W · 81 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Over | 55c | 220$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Under | 66c | 197.53$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed Under | 57c | 176.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…b3dcbacked Under | 65c | 170.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 39c | 135.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 35c | 102.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 40c | 86.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 38c | 72.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 44c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Under | 31c | 61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Over | 60c | 58.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 21c | 51.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 40c | 50.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Under | 66c | 45.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…c58fbacked Under | 65c | 41.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…c0d1backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef69…cdbdbacked Under | 55c | 38.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 35c | 37.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Under | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 42c | 32.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | -18.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 38c | 32.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45a8…82e1backed Under | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8690…5875backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Over | 63c | 19.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Over | 67c | 19.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.