NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b62edcf1c0a86c23b7fac95507d44012c7288e771fc8ec901fcea2f98cf3b6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fc4…1f41backed Cavaliers | 60c | 8,333$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Raptors | 40c | 7,633$3,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,580 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Raptors | 46c | 968.39$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.39 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Raptors | 40c | 751.59$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.96 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Cavaliers | 35c | 579.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Cavaliers | 57c | 499.96$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.98 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Cavaliers | 38c | 425.27$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.28 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Raptors | 61c | 412.25$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Raptors | 69c | 349.96$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60da…a14ebacked Cavaliers | 61c | 285.11$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.29 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers | 58c | 242.86$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.86 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 157$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 139$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Raptors | 43c | 118.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Raptors | 43c | 118.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Raptors | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Raptors | 59c | 92.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Raptors | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Raptors | 39c | 74.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…041bbacked Raptors | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Cavaliers | 42c | 67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Cavaliers | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Raptors | 43c | 55.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Raptors | 43c | 54.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Cavaliers | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Cavaliers | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Cavaliers | 33c | 48.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 160 | 27.5%44 W · 116 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb221…a639backed Raptors | 44c | 45.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Cavaliers | 68c | 43.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Raptors | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Cavaliers | 64c | 37.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Cavaliers | 51c | 36.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cavaliers | 57c | 34.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Cavaliers | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…be9dbacked Raptors | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…2777backed Cavaliers | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Raptors | 52c | 23.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Cavaliers | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 149 | 40.3%60 W · 89 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5Under won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.