TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 232.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,847

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,985 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Over44c701.4$308 inLost-$307.9269848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under56c607.14$340 inWon+$267.1495452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over19c158.65$30 inLost-$29.6576653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over50c138$69 inLost-$692,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1de1…8f45backed Under50c138$69 inWon+$691353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x798c…e64cbacked Under80c125$100 inWon+$254748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Over18c93.2$17 inLost-$16.872429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aea…34b7backed Under57c86.81$49 inWon+$37.332240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Over40c57.5$23 inLost-$22.9349247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Under60c50$30 inWon+$2036243.9%159 W · 203 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a7d…8ee2backed Under65c30$20 inWon+$10.52642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over46c28$13 inLost-$12.8889850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Under66c22.48$15 inWon+$7.6430348.2%146 W · 157 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Under63c20.3$13 inWon+$7.4816369.9%114 W · 49 L+18.6wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+19.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84bb…25d3backed Under54c18.74$10 inWon+$8.622737%10 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under74c15$11 inWon+$3.91,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f18…d6cabacked Under80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.510656.6%60 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.