TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,429

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,536 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb7f5…c669backed Under41c10,000$4,098 inLost-$4,098.1266250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over61c3,929$2,409 inWon+$1,520.63,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed Over61c2,459$1,500 inWon+$959.023256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over65c1,952$1,275 inWon+$676.9876653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over75c1,637$1,230 inWon+$406.5176054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over56c1,512$849 inWon+$662.722,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51e…e386backed Under26c780.93$200 inLost-$2006344.4%28 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Over61c718$438 inWon+$280.021637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d35…96afbacked Under30c699.99$210 inLost-$2103138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over71c300$213 inWon+$871,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7d…8ee2backed Under22c160$36 inLost-$35.82642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb308…23a6backed Under14c135.71$19 inLost-$193764.9%24 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Over53c101.89$54 inWon+$47.895253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51f…194cbacked Over60c100$60 inWon+$407100%7 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+81.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1ba…3bccbacked Over58c95.55$55 inWon+$40.413030%9 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+10%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over55c90.91$50 inWon+$40.911,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under47c82.64$39 inLost-$39.169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Over61c73.11$45 inWon+$28.5133159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Over64c73.11$47 inWon+$26.3255751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Over64c71.97$46 inWon+$25.9316653.6%89 W · 77 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c1…be67backed Over61c35.44$21 inWon+$13.972653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…c208backed Under44c31.11$14 inLost-$13.811253.6%60 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Over64c26.4$17 inWon+$9.514845.3%67 W · 81 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5406…adb6backed Under46c25$12 inLost-$11.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Over74c22.2$16 inWon+$5.7415662.8%98 W · 58 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over53c20$11 inWon+$9.452230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Over62c18.85$12 inWon+$7.1620247.5%96 W · 106 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.