NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b325003f33ab75ae1fb7812ae54240d5eab2d80d0415cfed233de47ef8bc6b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Under | 48c | 20,567$9,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,871.96 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 17,620$8,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,798.41 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Over | 51c | 3,046$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.31 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 50c | 2,444$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.96 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 1,192$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.24 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 1,133$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.31 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…c324backed Under | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf29…834cbacked Over | 52c | 1,045$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.41 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6638…0b09backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 987$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 955$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.85 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…0d2cbacked Under | 48c | 938.02$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a2…a105backed Under | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 52c | 717.76$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.73 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Over | 54c | 294.44$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 53c | 161.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 48c | 152.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a5…a850backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…7690backed Over | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…db97backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -9.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd39c…90e1backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Under | 48c | 91.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 256 | 41.4%106 W · 150 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 83.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…dcb7backed Over | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 30c | 52.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 348 | 50.9%177 W · 171 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 53c | 50.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 279 | 45.9%128 W · 151 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Under | 48c | 46.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…02b7backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e83…b22fbacked Over | 51c | 30.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…039dbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…1eccbacked Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2d…448fbacked Over | 54c | 21.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 20.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 254.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 256.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 259.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.