TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,432 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4d2…ce99backed Cavaliers58c1,512$877 inLost-$876.6242842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Cavaliers47c1,464$688 inLost-$687.9895651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Raptors42c1,114$468 inWon+$645.848154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Raptors44c768.18$336 inWon+$432.542,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Cavaliers56c625.54$350 inLost-$350714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Cavaliers57c263.49$150 inLost-$15036248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Raptors42c255.88$107 inWon+$148.4113047.7%62 W · 68 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Raptors51c115.6$59 inWon+$56.81,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Raptors45c52.21$23 inWon+$28.9733556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Raptors44c44.87$20 inWon+$25.131,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c9…bf73backed Raptors46c32.77$15 inWon+$17.772334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0514…def7backed Raptors74c32.43$24 inWon+$8.433855.3%21 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc647…5e87backed Raptors48c30.31$15 inWon+$15.76887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick56cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3e8…82d1backed Cavaliers55c20$11 inLost-$112634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-33.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.