NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0643a5bf7ffd9b1831fb55d1f058e65046c6d4c56cdd70b74417113def57add
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 49c | 9,834$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.08 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 80c | 3,649$2,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.52 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 2,232$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.65 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…d196backed Under | 14c | 2,012$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 125 | 40.8%51 W · 74 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 1,677$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.96 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 1,544$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.62 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3582…8fc6backed Under | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…8a01backed Over | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 32c | 929.06$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.3 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Over | 52c | 844.77$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.49 | 376 | 27.9%105 W · 271 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Under | 18c | 536.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Under | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 165 | 55.8%92 W · 73 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 52c | 459.99$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.79 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52f…88fabacked Under | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 266.25$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…2909backed Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Under | 48c | 220$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…3122backed Under | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 48c | 134.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 31c | 116.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 77c | 111.6$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…997cbacked Under | 48c | 104.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…789abacked Over | 67c | 99.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +7.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…0b46backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051e…c25abacked Over | 53c | 73.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Over | 72c | 69.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09d…d23fbacked Under | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…a1c0backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 279 | 45.9%128 W · 151 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 60c | 49.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 49c | 41.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 519 | 46.8%243 W · 276 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 47c | 28.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ed…db3dbacked Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…5298backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8b…179dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 56cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 67c | 18.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +11.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Over | 67c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 254.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 256.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 259.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.