TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,261 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5159…d7aebacked No43c327.02$141 inWon+$186.46147.5%29 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ca…9de7backed Yes57c237.72$135 inLost-$1359558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No47c213.68$100 inWon+$113.2556050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7987…884abacked Yes53c207.55$110 inLost-$11025850%129 W · 129 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes53c200$106 inLost-$10641227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No46c200$91 inWon+$108.612347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe299…761bbacked No50c100$50 inWon+$5031540.3%127 W · 188 L-15.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x128a…a1b0backed No47c100$47 inWon+$535339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes50c60$30 inLost-$3016027.5%44 W · 116 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes55c55$30 inLost-$30.2540053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No45c50$23 inWon+$27.576247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a7…d1cbbacked Yes55c50$28 inLost-$27.53542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No42c50$21 inWon+$2912642.9%54 W · 72 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x914d…41cabacked Yes53c47$25 inLost-$256131.1%19 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdffd…924fbacked Yes57c43.6$25 inLost-$2513949.6%69 W · 70 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e9…736dbacked Yes57c42.11$24 inLost-$242045%9 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed49…9fb8backed Yes57c26.32$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a7…74debacked Yes57c26.32$15 inLost-$151450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No42c24.06$10 inWon+$13.9579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5495…fc8cbacked Yes57c20$11 inLost-$11.42339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-37.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.