NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1381a0338d12285789f2b14308daf6ddcd642d32e70897368b2e92385ce6aa25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf11…8399backed Raptors | 53c | 5,300$2,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491 | 375 | 39.5%148 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers | 41c | 4,734$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.22 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Cavaliers | 32c | 2,583$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.96 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Raptors | 52c | 1,729$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.69 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Cavaliers | 17c | 1,000$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 295 | 47.5%140 W · 155 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Cavaliers | 47c | 865.95$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9101…78ddbacked Raptors | 75c | 600$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Raptors | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d0d4backed Raptors | 57c | 420$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…896cbacked Cavaliers | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Cavaliers | 28c | 359.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Cavaliers | 17c | 343.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 362 | 43.9%159 W · 203 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cavaliers | 49c | 332.22$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.79 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cavaliers | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Cavaliers | 48c | 222.79$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cavaliers | 50c | 212.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Cavaliers | 50c | 209.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 592 | 55.4%328 W · 264 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Raptors | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Raptors | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Cavaliers | 46c | 159.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 153.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cavaliers | 21c | 124.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 123.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 259 | 58.3%151 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Raptors | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Cavaliers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Cavaliers | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cavaliers | 49c | 97.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 469 | 59.1%277 W · 192 L | +28.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Raptors | 68c | 86.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Raptors | 71c | 84.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Raptors | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…4a06backed Raptors | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Cavaliers | 50c | 69.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Raptors | 59c | 68.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 185 | 57.3%106 W · 79 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Cavaliers | 40c | 54.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Raptors | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Cavaliers | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a1edbacked Raptors | 61c | 48.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f6…f745backed Raptors | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Cavaliers | 24c | 41.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Cavaliers | 32c | 41.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Raptors | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Cavaliers | 41c | 35.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Cavaliers | 42c | 35.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…c622backed Cavaliers | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +9.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Raptors | 75c | 23.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Cavaliers | 44c | 23.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Raptors | 54c | 19.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Raptors | 71c | 18.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 68 | 76.5%52 W · 16 L | +12.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 254.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 256.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 259.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.