TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,834
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,834 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa38a…821dbacked Raptors61c5,938$3,633 inLost-$3,632.8793148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47bc…9504backed Raptors47c4,255$2,000 inLost-$1,999.825459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Cavaliers38c3,414$1,297 inWon+$2,116.5961638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers45c3,374$1,532 inWon+$1,842.822,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x895d…11d5backed Raptors55c2,719$1,500 inLost-$1,5003557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Cavaliers53c2,308$1,223 inWon+$1,084.931,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Cavaliers40c872.5$349 inWon+$523.51,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers48c721.41$347 inWon+$374.4869848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cavaliers46c500$228 inWon+$272.52,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d46…3248backed Cavaliers37c467.75$173 inWon+$294.694746.8%22 W · 25 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+81.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Raptors63c343$216 inLost-$216.092,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Cavaliers38c223.66$85 inWon+$138.6752861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Cavaliers46c200$91 inWon+$1091,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Cavaliers47c197.1$92 inWon+$104.759255.4%328 W · 264 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Cavaliers49c168.16$82 inWon+$85.9589048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Cavaliers42c130.91$55 inWon+$75.9346959.1%277 W · 192 L+28.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0570…5200backed Cavaliers47c130.59$61 inWon+$69.368457.1%48 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Cavaliers46c120$56 inWon+$64.221,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Cavaliers54c117.82$64 inWon+$53.8511946.2%55 W · 64 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cavaliers51c107.3$55 inWon+$52.625958.3%151 W · 108 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Cavaliers53c96.55$51 inWon+$45.3855751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Cavaliers53c96.55$51 inWon+$45.3816653.6%89 W · 77 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Cavaliers53c96.53$51 inWon+$45.3720247.5%96 W · 106 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Cavaliers53c93.77$50 inWon+$44.0733159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadbc…8af3backed Cavaliers50c90$45 inWon+$451241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Cavaliers46c75$35 inWon+$40.557550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a1…6daebacked Cavaliers53c56.6$30 inWon+$26.622442.9%96 W · 128 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b01…dee1backed Raptors51c50$26 inLost-$25.59454.3%51 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Raptors41c49.89$20 inLost-$20.265058%29 W · 21 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdb3d…58f5backed Cavaliers53c47.1$25 inWon+$22.1414153.9%76 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Raptors48c38.9$18 inLost-$18.485129.4%15 W · 36 L-7.8wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-30.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa61b…7446backed Cavaliers56c35.54$20 inWon+$15.64757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Cavaliers46c34.78$16 inWon+$18.7818242.9%78 W · 104 L-10.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39dc…3fb1backed Raptors55c29.72$16 inLost-$16.39347.3%44 W · 49 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Cavaliers40c28.48$12 inWon+$16.9511057.3%63 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5081…e5acbacked Cavaliers52c25$13 inWon+$1220055.5%111 W · 89 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda9c…0639backed Raptors61c18$11 inLost-$10.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.