TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,292
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,292 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Raptors48c1,504$722 inLost-$721.5369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Cavaliers52c1,459$759 inWon+$700.3293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Raptors19c1,005$191 inLost-$190.9552230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Cavaliers65c451.36$291 inWon+$160.1834255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Raptors45c300$135 inLost-$13515246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f3…73e6backed Cavaliers30c300$90 inWon+$2105016%8 W · 42 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Raptors70c300$210 inLost-$2101,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cavaliers35c200$70 inWon+$1302,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…0d90backed Raptors65c200$130 inLost-$1308645.3%39 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers55c110$61 inWon+$49.52,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…a1f1backed Raptors52c96.15$50 inLost-$507536%27 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3048…057fbacked Cavaliers53c50$27 inWon+$23.311850.8%60 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Cavaliers59c42.37$25 inWon+$17.3746959.1%277 W · 192 L+28.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Raptors72c41.75$30 inLost-$3052461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Cavaliers60c40$24 inWon+$1689048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a33…9a46backed Raptors29c39.99$11 inLost-$11.513953.2%74 W · 65 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Cavaliers53c34.63$18 inWon+$16.336274.2%46 W · 16 L+11.3wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+27.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Cavaliers54c29.28$16 inWon+$13.475058%29 W · 21 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Cavaliers77c19.48$15 inWon+$4.4832750.2%164 W · 163 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.