TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,469 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6814…a9e7backed Under61c1,087$661 inWon+$426.633,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under61c515.2$314 inWon+$201.334255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a6a…ed83backed Under12c465.08$54 inWon+$411.271258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+94%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under11c397.26$44 inWon+$353.5652230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05c4…78c6backed Under5c300$15 inWon+$285333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+566.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f62…a825backed Under12c258.33$31 inWon+$227.333844.7%17 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8006…94dcbacked Under8c241.67$20 inWon+$221.672839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+60.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbbc…3122backed Under44c227.44$100 inWon+$127.447953.2%42 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over44c211.78$93 inLost-$92.711,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b6…e762backed Over50c200$100 inLost-$1003644.4%16 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Under54c200$108 inWon+$92.2536243.9%159 W · 203 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Over24c164$40 inLost-$39.7713036.2%47 W · 83 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Over45c132$59 inLost-$59.0131238.5%120 W · 192 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Over18c110$20 inLost-$19.816429.9%49 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Under11c102.74$11 inWon+$91.441,05353.5%563 W · 490 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5412…6214backed Over17c100$17 inLost-$17.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8963…c780backed Over17c100$17 inLost-$17.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d8a…8730backed Over17c100$17 inLost-$17.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849b…a5fdbacked Under20c90.51$18 inWon+$72.272740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Over57c63$36 inLost-$36.1626639.8%106 W · 160 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Over20c62.48$12 inLost-$12.25058%29 W · 21 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x25d4…74d6backed Over43c59.53$25 inLost-$25.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Over57c35$20 inLost-$20.0940440.1%162 W · 242 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over51c27.53$14 inLost-$14.0733556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Under57c24.58$14 inWon+$10.5238751.2%198 W · 189 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under48c24.33$12 inWon+$12.6522143.4%96 W · 125 L-12.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over52c24.33$13 inLost-$12.6530551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7797…668bbacked Over70c18.99$13 inLost-$13.3933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.