NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4848eaa9ee0a5b200c0837e2c5dd4c1f030b339cc7ca11bf8c3b08eb7e3a4fab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Cavaliers | 65c | 13,995$9,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,081.79 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Raptors | 38c | 7,835$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,857.71 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Raptors | 28c | 2,719$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.64 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Raptors | 33c | 1,788$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.5 | 313 | 45.7%143 W · 170 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Raptors | 38c | 875$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.5 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Cavaliers | 67c | 444$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.48 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed Raptors | 59c | 337.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.47 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Raptors | 41c | 257.69$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.27 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Cavaliers | 73c | 232.88$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Raptors | 27c | 218.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.69 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4610…1f21backed Cavaliers | 56c | 200.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Raptors | 50c | 194.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Raptors | 31c | 180.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cavaliers | 69c | 180.65$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2c4fbacked Cavaliers | 35c | 142.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Raptors | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Raptors | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0228…ec68backed Raptors | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…b695backed Raptors | 21c | 94.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Raptors | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Raptors | 37c | 81.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 149 | 40.3%60 W · 89 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Cavaliers | 22c | 78.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Raptors | 30c | 77.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Raptors | 28c | 73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Raptors | 28c | 68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Raptors | 28c | 68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cd…e1a8backed Raptors | 33c | 67.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Raptors | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cavaliers | 70c | 66.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe127…82a2backed Cavaliers | 49c | 62.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Raptors | 27c | 62.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Raptors | 28c | 52.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Raptors | 80c | 50.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Raptors | 33c | 50.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cavaliers | 67c | 50.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Cavaliers | 79c | 50.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Raptors | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Raptors | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 49.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Raptors | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…041bbacked Raptors | 70c | 41.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…666abacked Raptors | 37c | 40.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…be9dbacked Raptors | 37c | 38.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Raptors | 57c | 38.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Cavaliers | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Raptors | 34c | 36.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Cavaliers | 66c | 36.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Raptors | 41c | 35.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…3c28backed Cavaliers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Raptors | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Raptors | 47c | 22.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…a581backed Raptors | 50c | 21.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 254.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 256.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 259.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.