NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 254.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ba0c460e8d8f63ed99b8d02179512dac40e46cc75bc22f98e408d09abfce061
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 39c | 11,137$4,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,743.37 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 44c | 7,015$3,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,096.69 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Under | 52c | 2,799$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.33 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 61c | 1,904$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.56 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 49c | 1,142$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.42 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 61c | 805.26$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.21 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 46c | 461.05$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.3 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…3122backed Under | 49c | 404.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.4 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 372.1$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.1 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 42c | 275$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.56 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 47c | 240.94$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa544…7566backed Over | 70c | 203$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 51c | 149$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Under | 37c | 141.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.27 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…e02fbacked Over | 65c | 119.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 47c | 111.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 48c | 103$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…556ebacked Over | 54c | 92.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 48c | 84.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 50c | 84.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +217.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed Over | 69c | 80.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 55c | 58.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 52.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 395 | 48.4%191 W · 204 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…63afbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…194cbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 58c | 42.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…3fb1backed Over | 49c | 36.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 72c | 34.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Over | 48c | 32.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 254.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 256.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 259.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.