NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ff449f608803474e0f491ce77af0bc444c8d5baa2cc0de7e5a44b9fe721b105
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Over | 56c | 5,404$3,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,369.45 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 45c | 2,994$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.51 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 39c | 2,029$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.61 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 40c | 1,747$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.49 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 984.14$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 64c | 941.89$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.89 | 253 | 60.1%152 W · 101 L | +26.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 43c | 837.97$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.47 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked Over | 57c | 811.51$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.51 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 21c | 750.14$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.03 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Over | 62c | 671.9$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.9 | 165 | 55.8%92 W · 73 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 43c | 630.09$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.95 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Over | 60c | 550$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.2 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 40c | 509.16$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.66 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Over | 58c | 387.93$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.93 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…7e0dbacked Over | 56c | 356.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 33c | 348.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Under | 45c | 333$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 44c | 324.36$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.45 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 58c | 302$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…5503backed Under | 45c | 229.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 362 | 43.9%159 W · 203 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 25c | 196.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 45c | 181.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Over | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Over | 61c | 126.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Under | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 40c | 81.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f68…ef58backed Over | 62c | 80.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 43c | 75.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…2b4fbacked Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc90b…bf72backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1509…ca95backed Under | 44c | 44.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…9d08backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…64a8backed Over | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 41c | 35.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086c…4932backed Over | 58c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Raptors won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 254.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 256.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 259.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.