TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,379

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,172 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x617b…a499backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon+$50087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Over50c704.99$350 inLost-$350.191637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over44c694.99$306 inLost-$305.861638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over50c219$110 inLost-$109.52,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Over50c109$55 inLost-$54.542740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6924…1455backed Under55c89.09$49 inWon+$40.095259.6%31 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18e8…0ba0backed Under50c87.85$44 inWon+$43.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over50c75$38 inLost-$37.557550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over47c66.98$31 inLost-$31.569848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over64c65.02$42 inLost-$41.613,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff05…f9b3backed Under65c61.54$40 inWon+$21.541172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+36.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under51c55.84$28 inWon+$27.6137665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Under65c53.07$34 inWon+$18.5723047.4%109 W · 121 L+19.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over62c40.36$25 inLost-$24.9330551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf702…d5d3backed Over77c38.96$30 inLost-$304434.1%15 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Under32c38.96$13 inWon+$26.3536243.9%159 W · 203 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa64f…e598backed Over35c30$11 inLost-$10.511057.3%63 W · 47 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed Under50c20$10 inWon+$1010146.5%47 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+217.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.