TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,905 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd38…99d4backed No54c1,552$837 inWon+$714.4825657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked Yes47c1,000$470 inLost-$4706147.5%29 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No50c385.87$193 inWon+$192.941,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Yes44c385.44$170 inLost-$169.613751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked No41c290.91$119 inWon+$171.641,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No33c218.18$72 inWon+$146.1876054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Yes52c103$54 inLost-$53.5642740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No54c55.69$30 inWon+$25.721056.7%119 W · 91 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No49c49.98$24 inWon+$25.4943752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Yes43c46.29$20 inLost-$2014445.8%66 W · 78 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Yes51c39.41$20 inLost-$2066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No54c38.5$21 inWon+$17.7632866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No50c30$15 inWon+$1533556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4480…8c0ebacked Yes53c28.3$15 inLost-$1510351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No47c28.3$13 inWon+$1585449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed No42c25$11 inWon+$14.53,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ed…db3dbacked Yes51c23.42$12 inLost-$123158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed No53c20.16$11 inWon+$9.4812645.2%57 W · 69 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab5b…9b70backed Yes50c20$10 inLost-$103935.9%14 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.