TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Magic, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,217 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7d7f…86d2backed Magic19c500$93 inLost-$92.514940.3%60 W · 89 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pistons75c391.39$294 inWon+$97.851,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Magic25c384.1$96 inLost-$96.0350346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xface…04bdbacked Magic27c357.47$97 inLost-$96.845450%27 W · 27 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Pistons73c297.87$217 inWon+$80.4347359.2%280 W · 193 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Pistons77c250$193 inWon+$57.53467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Magic29c189.66$55 inLost-$555040%20 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Pistons71c189.45$135 inWon+$54.9469848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Magic25c178.67$45 inLost-$44.6776247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Magic6c168.16$11 inLost-$10.9232654.6%178 W · 148 L+22.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Pistons75c166.67$125 inWon+$41.6730055.7%167 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc5…838abacked Magic29c148.79$43 inLost-$43.151330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pistons71c97.87$69 inWon+$28.381,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Magic36c83.33$30 inLost-$3023652.5%124 W · 112 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Pistons64c73.33$47 inWon+$26.479650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e39…fe16backed Magic29c68.97$20 inLost-$203735.1%13 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Pistons73c50$37 inWon+$13.511852.5%62 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Pistons72c31.82$23 inWon+$8.911,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.