NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x350405eca193b6a3f3c0fabb8eea581b578d64a3a22fafcbd5ca67f785368748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Pistons, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Magic | 54c | 6,389$3,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,944.55 | 423 | 48%203 W · 220 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Pistons | 47c | 2,424$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.29 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Magic | 64c | 1,860$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.86 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Magic | 42c | 1,576$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.87 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Pistons | 66c | 1,507$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pistons | 27c | 1,020$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Pistons | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Magic | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Magic | 22c | 901.71$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.33 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…3248backed Magic | 29c | 596.89$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.79 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pistons | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.25 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Magic | 78c | 413.41$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pistons | 48c | 312$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.42 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Magic | 36c | 280$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Magic | 73c | 215.76$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Pistons | 45c | 178.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Magic | 32c | 136.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Magic | 32c | 134$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Magic | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Magic | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Magic | 32c | 123$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Magic | 28c | 106$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Pistons | 24c | 103.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Magic | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…0f39backed Magic | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Magic | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Magic | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Magic | 32c | 99.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Magic | 32c | 92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Magic | 60c | 89.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Magic | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Magic | 28c | 68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…194cbacked Magic | 61c | 66.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Magic | 30c | 66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 164 | 29.9%49 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Magic | 76c | 54.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Magic | 28c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Magic | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…e5acbacked Pistons | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 200 | 55.5%111 W · 89 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pistons | 44c | 48.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Magic | 54c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 469 | 59.1%277 W · 192 L | +28.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…f991backed Magic | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Pistons | 33c | 30.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 68 | 76.5%52 W · 16 L | +12.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Magic | 39c | 27.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pistons | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…3528backed Magic | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Magic | 73c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-13.5)this page
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Magic vs. PistonsPistons won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-12.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-15.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Magic won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.