NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2384ed2df95e12d94aa9ab950984c5ec3ec7468411e7dc67b4f0f0412218e90c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Pistons, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked Magic | 55c | 30,146$16,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,573.12 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Pistons | 45c | 7,833$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Pistons | 45c | 6,538$2,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,947.07 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pistons | 45c | 5,661$2,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,547.33 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Pistons | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Pistons | 45c | 2,163$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.36 | 170 | 52.4%89 W · 81 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Pistons | 45c | 1,142$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.99 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Pistons | 11c | 1,002$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Pistons | 45c | 546.67$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 185 | 57.3%106 W · 79 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pistons | 45c | 425.53$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Pistons | 45c | 425.53$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 469 | 59.1%277 W · 192 L | +28.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pistons | 43c | 358.39$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pistons | 46c | 340.01$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.54 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Pistons | 45c | 334.69$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 592 | 55.4%328 W · 264 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Magic | 55c | 318.55$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Pistons | 46c | 285.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.37 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Pistons | 45c | 283$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Pistons | 9c | 249.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 362 | 43.9%159 W · 203 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Pistons | 45c | 225.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pistons | 45c | 204$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pistons | 45c | 201.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Pistons | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Pistons | 45c | 198.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 259 | 58.3%151 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1833…1e48backed Pistons | 53c | 181.4$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Magic | 53c | 118$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Magic | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Magic | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Magic | 51c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Pistons | 45c | 74.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Pistons | 17c | 67.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Pistons | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Pistons | 45c | 49.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Pistons | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Magic | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 519 | 46.8%243 W · 276 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…e6fabacked Magic | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Pistons | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…3a43backed Magic | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Pistons | 45c | 30.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Pistons | 46c | 30.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pistons | 46c | 30.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed Pistons | 45c | 30.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 103 | 69.9%72 W · 31 L | +13.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Pistons | 44c | 29.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pistons | 42c | 25.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-15.5)this page
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Magic vs. PistonsPistons won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 209.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5Under won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Under won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-12.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-13.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Magic won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.