Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aa0f48f2c20fda7ff7f42efb931adf4c10d140aae0b2dbd0f37faeae08f6c7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 0c | 5,430$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,377$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 45c | 992.74$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.61 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 831.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 64c | 821.76$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.26 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…13bdbacked No | 69c | 737.54$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 733.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 5c | 637.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc84b…fe57backed Yes | 77c | 521.93$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 8c | 515.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…e691backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 484.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 66c | 310.29$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.27 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 26c | 227.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 42c | 227.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 24c | 224.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 10c | 209.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592d…4b16backed Yes | 70c | 203$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.53 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed Yes | 23c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 78c | 182.61$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.71 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3268…d305backed Yes | 9c | 163.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…aaa2backed No | 78c | 128.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 43c | 117.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 102.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 75c | 96.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…3647backed Yes | 79c | 91.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 15c | 84.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…e40ebacked Yes | 37c | 80.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 77.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 37c | 71.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 71.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 36c | 65.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 56.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 66c | 50.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 49.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 68c | 43.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 31c | 38.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed Yes | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.