TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,602

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,704 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ff2…01b9backed No54c11,083$6,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,001.8686952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed Yes51c5,453$2,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,64617859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes71c3,541$2,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.611,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb851…0dfebacked Yes50c2,600$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2882544%11 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+106.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3016…54e9backed No1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513614.7%20 W · 116 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa895…faacbacked Yes44c2,082$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.3420338.4%78 W · 125 L+30.4wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+177%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes64c1,436$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.711,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce3b…0b8fbacked No50c1,420$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.75988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick73cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed No51c1,175$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.5629137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed No60c1,128$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.311032.7%36 W · 74 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa821…0bc8backed Yes77c1,122$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2614650%23 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59061820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes63c834.72$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.955,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No20c832.8$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.665,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No27c754.3$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.921,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes65c648.63$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.8753258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c621.77$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1321,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No43c464.15$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.952,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89a5…a69abacked No30c403.05$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.961952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No37c331.19$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.971,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No39c322.83$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.741,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes8c300$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27749622.2%110 W · 386 L+26.1wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes44c292$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.432,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf93…5d2abacked Yes66c226.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.228962.9%56 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x592d…4b16backed No66c203$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.27977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c197$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.275,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed No50c178.34$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7323845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes14c175.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.68,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ec…5c9fbacked No47c168.48$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes57c164.86$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.322,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No60c163.72$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6661752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No10c163.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.527,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes53c143.45$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.762548%12 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes49c137.31$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.161,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No65c135.6$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.091,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes69c123$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.962,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No13c122.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6988650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No31c119.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.322,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83cd…e218backed No25c116.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.139448.9%46 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd702…2087backed Yes52c115$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.754052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes11c110.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6426933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9532…6bc1backed No26c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.45714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes37c103.39$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.361,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes18c103.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1129427.9%82 W · 212 L+18.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x00b6…cd1fbacked No43c102.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.49650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf87c…cfcbbacked No43c102.37$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.025567.3%37 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907129.6%21 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4910850.9%55 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5020445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bd3…a457backed Yes15c98.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.644932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No63c89.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c88.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.126,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes29c80.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0913035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes76c78.09$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7234050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked Yes47c75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7523060.9%140 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6243…e014backed No22c67.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6823243.5%101 W · 131 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed Yes65c65.94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233083.3%25 W · 5 L+5.7wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+27.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No41c62.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.872,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x669b…f8c3backed Yes31c60.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+218.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaef…d242backed Yes40c57.76$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.763256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b1f…e691backed No20c56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc319…90f4backed No46c54.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No59c53.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes66c53.57$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3230665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.59965.7%65 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No70c49.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.861,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes63c48.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.032,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb63…ef94backed No31c48.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No68c47.64$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.472,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa581…b552backed Yes42c46.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.131968.4%13 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4255…2794backed No70c45.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No24c43.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.524,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes71c42.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2782268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked No32c42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5834628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed Yes67c41.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.496563.1%41 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.75570.9%39 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes68c39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4223362.2%145 W · 88 L+33.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4526…2d4bbacked No46c36.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.99159.3%54 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd834…1d87backed Yes58c34.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.467133.8%24 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No52c32.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7843563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No61c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.526256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No46c31.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.651,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes62c31.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1245130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66e4…5583backed Yes61c31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.212070%14 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42e1…8148backed Yes72c30.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.542634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43c7…18dbbacked No62c24.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked Yes50c21.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9630168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No69c21.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.918441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No49c20.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked Yes58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.412052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f7…0312backed No59c19.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5314663%92 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.