Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ea1c745210e520991640b8b697f619d972ae81f4c00e7161a9950352b459a99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 54c | 11,083$6,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,001.86 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 51c | 5,453$2,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,646 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 71c | 3,541$2,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.61 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb851…0dfebacked Yes | 50c | 2,600$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 44c | 2,082$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.34 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,436$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.71 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3b…0b8fbacked No | 50c | 1,420$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 73cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 51c | 1,175$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.56 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 60c | 1,128$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.3 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 77c | 1,122$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 834.72$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 20c | 832.8$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 27c | 754.3$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.92 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 65c | 648.63$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.87 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 621.77$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 464.15$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…a69abacked No | 30c | 403.05$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 331.19$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 322.83$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.74 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 44c | 292$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked Yes | 66c | 226.22$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592d…4b16backed No | 66c | 203$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 197$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 50c | 178.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 175.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…5c9fbacked No | 47c | 168.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 57c | 164.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 163.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 163.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 53c | 143.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 49c | 137.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 135.6$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 69c | 123$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 13c | 122.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 31c | 119.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed No | 25c | 116.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 52c | 115$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 11c | 110.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…6bc1backed No | 26c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 37c | 103.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 18c | 103.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.11 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…cd1fbacked No | 43c | 102.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 43c | 102.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 15c | 98.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 89.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 88.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 29c | 80.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 76c | 78.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 22c | 67.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed Yes | 65c | 65.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 62.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669b…f8c3backed Yes | 31c | 60.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 40c | 57.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…e691backed No | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…90f4backed No | 46c | 54.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 59c | 53.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 66c | 53.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 49.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 63c | 48.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb63…ef94backed No | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 47.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…b552backed Yes | 42c | 46.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…2794backed No | 70c | 45.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 43.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 71c | 42.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 32c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 67c | 41.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 68c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 46c | 36.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 58c | 34.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 52c | 32.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 31.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 62c | 31.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Yes | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 72c | 30.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…18dbbacked No | 62c | 24.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 50c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 69c | 21.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 49c | 20.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 59c | 19.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.