Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf10c631bf64325591ab9ccbd76c52cfc2d4342256bec8ca265fe03a0a1e8469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 56c | 3,316$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.64 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 47c | 2,138$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.94 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,075$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 762.14$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 739.35$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.16 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 524.07$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 462.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 454.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 352.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 30c | 351.76$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 321.81$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 318.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 9c | 255.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 79c | 253.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 4c | 247.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 247$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 16c | 246.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 6c | 245$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 244.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.68 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 236.7$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…f7c3backed Yes | 38c | 212.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 30c | 207.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x592d…4b16backed No | 79c | 203$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed No | 60c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.03 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 42c | 196.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 181.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 13c | 172.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 29c | 170.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 53c | 163.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 155.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 151$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 80c | 145.37$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 45c | 136.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 132.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 29c | 100.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…13bdbacked Yes | 58c | 83.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 36c | 64.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 63.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 33c | 63.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 60c | 53.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 38c | 53.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed Yes | 38c | 53.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…172ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 63c | 48.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 30c | 47.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 49c | 47.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 34c | 46.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c15…5542backed Yes | 56c | 41.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 54c | 40.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 57c | 38.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 27c | 36.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 33.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 45c | 30.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 27.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 23.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 74c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 58c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.