Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a217035b0403ee2de8c572d806aa930c936b410da39e0bad794296ea59b2288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 34c | 275.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 36c | 235.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 31c | 223.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 66c | 211.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 76c | 184.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 86.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 28c | 72.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 32c | 64.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 63.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 44c | 57.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 52.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 51.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…b3b8backed Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 71c | 44.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 67c | 42.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 36.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 35c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed No | 70c | 29.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 28.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 27.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…953fbacked No | 68c | 22.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 22.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ff…df5abacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 73c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 20.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.