Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf90fe4b54b6298be802bab30a8e196cfb04f4616c7204e64183e6dd1ab748df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bublikof Bublik, Molcan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Molcan | 69c | 4,878$3,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,363 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Bublik | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.99 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Molcan | 68c | 2,211$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…0b4fbacked Molcan | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bublik | 31c | 1,382$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.78 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Molcan | 69c | 1,029$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.75 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Bublik | 34c | 907.13$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.71 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Bublik | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Molcan | 66c | 379.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Bublik | 35c | 359.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.13 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Molcan | 63c | 347.97$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.02 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…7047backed Bublik | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 256 | 33.6%86 W · 170 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Molcan | 30c | 226.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Bublik | 70c | 144.08$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Bublik | 33c | 111.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Molcan | 27c | 101.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Bublik | 64c | 73.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Molcan | 65c | 71.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f5…ea34backed Bublik | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Bublik | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Molcan | 37c | 44.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…ad3abacked Molcan | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Bublik | 44c | 44.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Molcan | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Bublik | 58c | 24.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Bublik | 64c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 441 | 38.8%171 W · 270 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5)this page
- Alexander Bublik vs. Alex Molcan: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Bublik vs. Molcan: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Bublik vs. Molcan: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Alex MolcanAlexander Bublik won
- Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs MolcanBublik won
- Set 2 Winner: Bublik vs MolcanBublik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.