Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2324110c290b833eb97601ee7ee003acabcdc745a227ab3f8a49efe519b4c7cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Safiullinof Fonseca, Safiullin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Safiullin | 70c | 5,640$3,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.56 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Fonseca | 30c | 2,295$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.79 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Fonseca | 30c | 2,055$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.37 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Fonseca | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Fonseca | 35c | 657.34$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Safiullin | 65c | 656.63$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.94 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0475…ed7abacked Fonseca | 35c | 580.08$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Safiullin | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Safiullin | 78c | 400.57$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Fonseca | 12c | 258.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 656 | 52.1%342 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Fonseca | 31c | 251.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Fonseca | 40c | 104.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Fonseca | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Safiullin | 62c | 67.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Safiullin | 50c | 67.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Safiullin | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Fonseca | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Fonseca | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 34.4%188 W · 358 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Fonseca | 32c | 43.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Safiullin | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1174…6cdebacked Fonseca | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Safiullin | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Safiullin | 68c | 18.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Safiullin | 62c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5)this page
- Roman Safiullin vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Safiullin vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Safiullin vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set 2 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set 3 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5)Safiullin won
- Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Joao FonsecaRoman Safiullin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.