Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Safiullin vs Fonseca
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1bed642d0f2f706e35c9cf16060639794d5a75d21995f57a6107d713fb0f0f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Safiullinof Safiullin, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Fonseca | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Safiullin | 41c | 590.11$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.33 | 400 | 46.8%187 W · 213 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Safiullin | 29c | 578.45$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.03 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Safiullin | 45c | 388.89$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.89 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Fonseca | 58c | 235.86$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…7047backed Fonseca | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 256 | 33.6%86 W · 170 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fonseca | 57c | 151.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Fonseca | 59c | 128$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Fonseca | 61c | 85.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 3,798 | 54.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L | +111.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Fonseca | 46c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…698bbacked Fonseca | 59c | 42.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Safiullin | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Safiullin vs Fonsecathis page
- Roman Safiullin vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Safiullin vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Safiullin vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set 3 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5)Safiullin won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5)Safiullin won
- Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Joao FonsecaRoman Safiullin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.