Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs Fonseca
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x582b3db8ef7c56cf5c96639d9deb70acb7382ecdb59be0757201c233e58156d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Safiullinof Safiullin, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…15ffbacked Fonseca | 66c | 2,121$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed Fonseca | 6c | 1,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 380 | 33.9%129 W · 251 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Safiullin | 50c | 1,132$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.08 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked Fonseca | 69c | 1,100$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Safiullin | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8734…87e6backed Fonseca | 65c | 765.32$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Safiullin | 35c | 600$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.61 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fonseca | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Safiullin | 34c | 464.46$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.55 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Fonseca | 14c | 401.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…a3e1backed Safiullin | 39c | 348.65$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.68 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Safiullin | 52c | 315.87$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.62 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Safiullin | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 120 | 25.8%31 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Safiullin | 34c | 268.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.99 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…ad68backed Fonseca | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Safiullin | 31c | 174.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Safiullin | 52c | 109.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Safiullin | 50c | 108.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…5792backed Safiullin | 37c | 93.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed Safiullin | 37c | 85.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -18.8wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Safiullin | 32c | 65.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Safiullin | 34c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 435 | 53.1%231 W · 204 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Safiullin | 31c | 48.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Safiullin | 36c | 47.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Safiullin | 44c | 41.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed Fonseca | 66c | 35.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…c2fcbacked Fonseca | 48c | 33.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Safiullin | 31c | 33.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…698bbacked Fonseca | 67c | 29.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Fonseca | 63c | 17.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs Fonsecathis page
- Roman Safiullin vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Safiullin vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Safiullin vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set 3 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5)Safiullin won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5)Safiullin won
- Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Joao FonsecaRoman Safiullin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.