Tennis · resolved market
Set 3 Winner: Safiullin vs Fonseca
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5e40ea1f40111c4897793d514e275152f9b8acb8bb84813ecf2e089119122df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Safiullinof Safiullin, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Safiullin | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 385 | 57.1%220 W · 165 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Fonseca | 44c | 657.91$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.05 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Fonseca | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 132 | 37.9%50 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Safiullin | 51c | 252.51$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.73 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Safiullin | 51c | 202$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Fonseca | 56c | 175.34$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Safiullin | 62c | 126.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Safiullin | 51c | 124.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed Fonseca | 69c | 122.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -18.8wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…c709backed Fonseca | 47c | 105.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…698bbacked Fonseca | 59c | 84.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Safiullin | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Safiullin | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…4f9dbacked Fonseca | 54c | 38.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.53per pick | 66cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Safiullin | 45c | 37.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Fonseca | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Safiullin | 51c | 23.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec7…93d1backed Safiullin | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 106 | 78.3%83 W · 23 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 3 Winner: Safiullin vs Fonsecathis page
- Roman Safiullin vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Safiullin vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Safiullin vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set 2 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5)Safiullin won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5)Safiullin won
- Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Joao FonsecaRoman Safiullin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.