Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49620f9c9bf73728a7abaa8dcba9cf97950ec46736fd016f983f99a781b5f68d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Safiullinof Fonseca, Safiullin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Fonseca | 62c | 6,080$3,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,778 | 361 | 45.2%163 W · 198 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Fonseca | 61c | 3,798$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.54 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Safiullin | 38c | 2,455$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.29 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Safiullin | 39c | 1,827$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.23 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Safiullin | 37c | 1,751$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.44 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Safiullin | 39c | 1,053$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.1 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Safiullin | 39c | 999.99$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.1 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Safiullin | 39c | 796.11$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.26 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Safiullin | 38c | 726.37$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.38 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Safiullin | 39c | 600$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.81 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Safiullin | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Fonseca | 60c | 498.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Safiullin | 39c | 469.07$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.82 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Safiullin | 38c | 372.67$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.05 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c69…4ee4backed Fonseca | 61c | 328.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Safiullin | 39c | 237.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.15 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Fonseca | 62c | 183.85$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Fonseca | 62c | 178.79$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Fonseca | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Fonseca | 60c | 164.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Fonseca | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Fonseca | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Safiullin | 38c | 102.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Safiullin | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Fonseca | 63c | 88.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Fonseca | 62c | 86.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…5112backed Fonseca | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Fonseca | 62c | 73.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Safiullin | 43c | 64.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd1…b918backed Safiullin | 45c | 55.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Safiullin | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Fonseca | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Safiullin | 37c | 48.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Fonseca | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Safiullin | 40c | 43.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Fonseca | 58c | 34.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 348 | 51.1%178 W · 170 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Fonseca | 62c | 34.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Fonseca | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Safiullin | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Safiullin | 68c | 26.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Fonseca | 59c | 25.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 291 | 47.8%139 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Fonseca | 62c | 17.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Safiullin (+1.5)this page
- Roman Safiullin vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Safiullin vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Safiullin vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set 2 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set 3 Winner: Safiullin vs FonsecaSafiullin won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Safiullin (+2.5)Safiullin won
- Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Joao FonsecaRoman Safiullin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.