Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0975cd1a13c781b91975d34355aef3ccaf0651cb52f22f3c6a4fd0c2d26a65b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noskovaof Noskova, Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mertens | 38c | 754.81$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.67 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Noskova | 41c | 486.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.91 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Mertens | 60c | 464.38$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.63 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…cb21backed Noskova | 55c | 418.18$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.18 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…e0e5backed Noskova | 73c | 273.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 262 | 63%165 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mertens | 36c | 234.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Noskova | 42c | 233.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.25 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x559b…4959backed Mertens | 58c | 233.19$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Noskova | 65c | 215.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Noskova | 37c | 209.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Noskova | 34c | 140.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Noskova | 40c | 125.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Mertens | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Mertens | 57c | 79.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…3f3cbacked Mertens | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…b3eabacked Mertens | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…8eafbacked Mertens | 40c | 79.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Noskova | 62c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Noskova | 42c | 62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Mertens | 58c | 62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Noskova | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 357 | 47.9%171 W · 186 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mertens | 59c | 37.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Mertens | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…eb31backed Mertens | 63c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Mertens | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…ed60backed Noskova | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Noskova | 57c | 26.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…30b6backed Mertens | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Mertens | 51c | 21.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3715…3704backed Mertens | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Mertens | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)this page
- Linda Noskova vs. Elise Mertens: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Noskova vs. Mertens: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs MertensNoskova won
- Set 2 Winner: Noskova vs MertensNoskova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Linda Noskova vs Elise MertensLinda Noskova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.