Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs Mertens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55b155f300a9fc61ef52b3a326536b4ca68973a806dcde2645713606ed1d3e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noskovaof Noskova, Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mertens | 41c | 7,577$3,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,133.03 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Noskova | 51c | 5,150$2,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.52 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mertens | 45c | 2,744$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.33 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…939ebacked Noskova | 61c | 2,397$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.72 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…15ffbacked Noskova | 60c | 1,253$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf764…61e6backed Noskova | 59c | 1,186$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.44 | 237 | 23.6%56 W · 181 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Noskova | 55c | 967.3$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.79 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3e…061cbacked Mertens | 45c | 649.81$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…732ebacked Noskova | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 345 | 55.1%190 W · 155 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Mertens | 41c | 399.98$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.99 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mertens | 32c | 397.19$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.86 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Noskova | 72c | 390.05$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…c915backed Noskova | 68c | 351.19$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.38 | 208 | 46.2%96 W · 112 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…cdf7backed Noskova | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Mertens | 44c | 309.75$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.29 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…dd03backed Mertens | 47c | 270.96$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Noskova | 54c | 266.58$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Mertens | 23c | 242.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Mertens | 45c | 222.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…7cdbbacked Mertens | 46c | 215.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Noskova | 56c | 212.07$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed Mertens | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Mertens | 33c | 93.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 327 | 26.9%88 W · 239 L | -43.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Mertens | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ffe8backed Noskova | 62c | 70.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Noskova | 75c | 62.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked Noskova | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Noskova | 73c | 58.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a2…a5ffbacked Noskova | 59c | 56.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 151 | 35.1%53 W · 98 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Mertens | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mertens | 36c | 48.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2b…0900backed Noskova | 64c | 48.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Noskova | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Noskova | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a0…ff28backed Noskova | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Noskova | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…4b61backed Noskova | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Mertens | 47c | 22.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Noskova | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Noskova | 56c | 20.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Noskova | 55c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs Mertensthis page
- Linda Noskova vs. Elise Mertens: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Noskova vs. Mertens: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Noskova vs MertensNoskova won
- Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)Noskova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Linda Noskova vs Elise MertensLinda Noskova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.