Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Noskova vs Mertens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3936b844c1933c7823572019f61ab2046b9a7e1e769f96dcafa28606af8db127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noskovaof Noskova, Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mertens | 37c | 3,762$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.74 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…939ebacked Noskova | 61c | 3,741$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.23 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Noskova | 70c | 1,355$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.07 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mertens | 37c | 712.58$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.04 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…5a97backed Noskova | 59c | 681.64$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.75 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Mertens | 53c | 481.13$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Noskova | 66c | 445.45$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Mertens | 39c | 416$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.89 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…c915backed Noskova | 64c | 406.25$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 208 | 46.2%96 W · 112 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…80a4backed Mertens | 43c | 390.48$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…cdf7backed Noskova | 52c | 380.77$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.77 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3e…061cbacked Mertens | 53c | 363.57$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.69 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Mertens | 39c | 327.45$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.44 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Mertens | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 223 | 46.6%104 W · 119 L | +15.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Mertens | 46c | 261.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…7cdbbacked Mertens | 39c | 255.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Noskova | 60c | 235.51$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…8f9ebacked Mertens | 47c | 205.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Mertens | 37c | 184.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 327 | 26.9%88 W · 239 L | -43.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Noskova | 63c | 181.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 155 | 32.9%51 W · 104 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Mertens | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 178 | 29.2%52 W · 126 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…f88fbacked Noskova | 63c | 133.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Noskova | 62c | 121.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ffe8backed Noskova | 65c | 105.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Mertens | 37c | 81.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Noskova | 53c | 73.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 302 | 46.7%141 W · 161 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…09cebacked Mertens | 41c | 70.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Noskova | 61c | 66.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2b…0900backed Noskova | 73c | 65.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Noskova | 53c | 63.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Mertens | 39c | 60.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked Mertens | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Noskova | 59c | 42.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Mertens | 38c | 38.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a0…ff28backed Noskova | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Noskova vs Mertensthis page
- Linda Noskova vs. Elise Mertens: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Noskova vs. Mertens: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs MertensNoskova won
- Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)Noskova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Linda Noskova vs Elise MertensLinda Noskova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.