Tennis · resolved market
Noskova vs. Mertens: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1b67639e4f64d6ffaa1766d396bb22a902249101db60393484f5e444ae085fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 52c | 12,507$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 7,500$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,899.98 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x559b…4959backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 53c | 2,040$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.07 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 51c | 1,128$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.28 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Under | 49c | 762.8$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.03 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 664 | 44.6%296 W · 368 L | +29.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 49c | 372.41$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.93 | 1,143 | 41.3%472 W · 671 L | +23.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 332$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.47 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Under | 47c | 300.43$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.23 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…6b98backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 56c | 160.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 50c | 123.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 440 | 42.3%186 W · 254 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Under | 50c | 112.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 50c | 95.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3daa…524bbacked Under | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Over | 52c | 83.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Over | 51c | 74.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under | 49c | 65.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 1,534 | 42.4%651 W · 883 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…d83abacked Under | 49c | 54.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…017dbacked Under | 47c | 50.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 136 | 58.1%79 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 49c | 43.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 49c | 40.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 304 | 36.8%112 W · 192 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 49c | 39.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 51c | 37.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daa…ca69backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Noskova vs. Mertens: Match O/U 22.5this page
- Linda Noskova vs. Elise Mertens: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs MertensNoskova won
- Set 2 Winner: Noskova vs MertensNoskova won
- Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)Noskova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Linda Noskova vs Elise MertensLinda Noskova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.