Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Agut (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aaaf8e6efaa253e48465fff65e1edc1b1d6e6fba3967e7d0183792ae53e378c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Fonseca, Agut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Agut | 40c | 1,892$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.98 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Fonseca | 47c | 772.24$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.58 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fonseca | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.32 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Agut | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Fonseca | 62c | 466.15$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Fonseca | 45c | 446.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.13 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Agut | 59c | 222$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.98 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Agut | 51c | 193.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Fonseca | 59c | 114.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Fonseca | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Fonseca | 63c | 95.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Agut | 60c | 92.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Agut | 49c | 81.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…6137backed Fonseca | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Fonseca | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Fonseca | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Fonseca | 50c | 75.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Agut | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…1d7cbacked Fonseca | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Agut | 55c | 70.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…2be9backed Fonseca | 45c | 67.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Fonseca | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Agut | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Fonseca | 49c | 54.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Fonseca | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Fonseca | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Agut | 46c | 36.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Fonseca | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Agut | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Fonseca | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 126 | 58.7%74 W · 52 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Fonseca | 61c | 20.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Fonseca | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Agut (+2.5)this page
- Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Agut vs FonsecaFonseca won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5)Fonseca won
- Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.