Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Agut vs Fonseca
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87ee0a5f4168485d3bb4e45270b9872caf01cb946d29f706da776b1b308dfe82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Agut, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fonseca | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Agut | 11c | 497.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Agut | 70c | 428.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Agut | 38c | 225$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Agut | 32c | 225$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Fonseca | 79c | 220.86$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Fonseca | 67c | 156.79$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Fonseca | 68c | 133.54$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Agut | 12c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f0…d4bfbacked Fonseca | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Fonseca | 55c | 78.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3e…061cbacked Fonseca | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Fonseca | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Agut | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91e…9ea8backed Fonseca | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fonseca | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Agut | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Agut | 49c | 27.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Fonseca | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Fonseca | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Fonseca | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Fonseca | 77c | 17.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Agut vs Fonsecathis page
- Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5)Fonseca won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Agut (+2.5)Fonseca won
- Wimbledon ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.