Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b5773fd561b0b94f9b25314df5bd0a270755dab4a8d373630a1da959f8e55ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 76c | 2,286$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.84 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Down | 41c | 2,056$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Down | 73c | 1,878$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.6 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 25c | 1,867$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.12 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Down | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Down | 15c | 997.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 77c | 387.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…1ea8backed Up | 70c | 236.78$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…c2c2backed Down | 36c | 219.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…7313backed Up | 31c | 101.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 27c | 95.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Up | 24c | 80.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Down | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…857ebacked Down | 66c | 59.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…a575backed Up | 70c | 38.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…3d93backed Up | 70c | 32.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Down | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed Up | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.