TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9a24…cf2b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
28
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 50.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+93.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$145.8
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+295.3%+$298.8
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$644Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$643.68
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+154.8%+$504.27
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$70.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$13.2
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+657.6%+$91.14
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+813.7%+$839.25
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+100%+$100
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$55.25
All 13 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Over $2M committed to the Pharos public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,944Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$1,943.85
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$74.6
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$40.1
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$191.98
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$877Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+158.1%+$1,386.46
Over $120M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$11.9
Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+67.2%+$163.16
Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+525%+$420
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+29.5%+$24.67
All 12 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$407.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$608.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.